Watch a 5000 HKD 🦞 claw take on 30 public market days in U.S. stocks. 看一只起步于 5000 HKD 的 🦞 claw，连续 30 天公开挑战美股市场。
Last synced by decision / 决策触发同步时间: 2026-04-22 04:36:39 CST
- a real 30-day live challenge, not backtest theater / 一个真实连续 30 天的实盘挑战，不是回测表演
- public updates on decisions, recaps, and turning points / 决策变化、每日复盘和关键转折都会公开更新
- a visible learning log that shows how the 🦞 claw updates its lessons over time / 一个公开学习日志，能看到 🦞 claw 如何随着挑战推进不断更新经验
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Day / 当前天数 | 44 / 30 (146.7%) |
| Starting capital / 起始资金 | 5000 HKD |
| Current equity / 当前权益 | HKD 4,822.77 |
| Net PnL / 累计盈亏 | -HKD 177.23 |
| Open positions / 当前持仓标的 | 0 open: No live positions / 暂无公开持仓 |
| Latest move / 最新动作 | [US] HOLD / [US] 观望 |
- Full challenge index / 全部挑战索引: docs/challenge-tracker.md
- Public memory / 公开记忆: docs/public-memory/README.md
Follow how the 🦞 claw turns finished trades, missed timing, and quiet sessions into reusable lessons. 看这只 🦞 claw 如何把已完成交易、时机判断和观望时段，沉淀成可复用的公开经验。
- Latest learning log / 最新学习日志: docs/public-memory/README.md
- Daily notes / 每日学习记录: docs/public-memory/short-memory.md
- Durable lessons / 长期经验库: docs/public-memory/long-memory.md
- Updated / 更新时间: 2026-04-22 04:36:39 CST
- Current book / 当前组合: No live positions / 暂无公开持仓
- Floating PnL / 当前浮动盈亏: +HKD 95.89
- Latest decision / 最新决策: [US] HOLD / [US] 观望
- Next milestone / 下一阶段: Day
30of30 - Public monitor / 公开监控: docs/public-monitor/2026/2026-04-22.md
- Daily report / 每日报告: docs/daily-reports/2026/2026-04-22.md
- Execution objective / 执行目标: deploy pocket capital only when the expected edge remains meaningfully above fees and sizing limits, with no leverage and no shorting. 仅在预期优势明显高于手续费且满足仓位上限时动用口袋资金，不加杠杆、不做空。
- Session discipline / 时段纪律: live decisions stay inside regular sessions, capped at 5 trade(s) per hour, with a 8% cash reserve and HKD 5000 daily loss stop. 实盘决策仅在常规交易时段内执行，每小时最多 5 笔，并保留 8% 现金缓冲，单日亏损达到 HKD 5000 即停止扩张。
- Live pools today / 今日实盘池: US:
AAPL,MSFT,META,GOOGL,AMZN,NVDA,AVGO,MU,BABA,RIVN,AMD,QCOM,TSM,TSLA,ORCL,WMT,LLY,JPM,XOM,V,MA,ASML,JNJ,ABBV,PG,BAC,HD,COST| HK:0388.HK,1810.HK,1024.HK,1211.HK,3750.HK,0700.HK,9988.HK,3690.HK,9999.HK,9618.HK,9888.HK. 今日实盘池如上，按市场分别执行。 - Observation focus today / 今日观察重点: themes
半导体,AI芯片,云软件,中概,电动车,手机链,消费电子,CPO,光模块,存储; public observation pool US: none / 暂无 | HK: none / 暂无. 今日观察主题为半导体,AI芯片,云软件,中概,电动车,手机链,消费电子,CPO,光模块,存储，并同步公开观察池变化。 - Explicit exclusions / 明确排除:
智谱,MiniMax,三星电子,SK 海力士,7709.HKstay out of the live universe when they violate the rules. 凡与规则冲突的标的（如上）均不进入实盘池。 - Latest gate result / 最新门槛结论: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name,
MU, still showed score -2.17, post-fee EV -1.53%, and win probability 59.3%. / 研究链路未稳定返回，但当前最高候选 MU 的费后 EV 为 -1.53% ，仍低于 live 开仓门槛 0.26% ，按小账户费后纪律继续 HOLD。
- Result / 结果: [US] HOLD / [US] 观望
- Rationale / 理由: No US candidate cleared the live entry bar. The strongest name,
MU, still showed score -2.17, post-fee EV -1.53%, and win probability 59.3%. / 研究链路未稳定返回，但当前最高候选 MU 的费后 EV 为 -1.53% ，仍低于 live 开仓门槛 0.26% ，按小账户费后纪律继续 HOLD。 - Decision basis / 决策依据: Regime: mixed tape; Path: standard decision flow; Model: research gpt-5.4, compare A; Purpose: standard review; confidence 0.22. / 市场状态：混合状态；决策链路：常规决策链路；模型：研究模型 gpt-5.4，候选比较 A；目的：常规审查；置信度 0.22。
- Candidate check / 候选检查: Reviewed 5 active candidate(s). Top checks:
MU(semiconductor) | score -2.17 | post-fee EV -1.53% | win 59.3%;ORCL(cloud software) | score -2.98 | post-fee EV -0.76% | win 52.8%;QCOM(semiconductor) | score -3.14 | post-fee EV -1.82% | win 48.9%. / 共检查 5 只活跃候选。靠前检查结果：MU（半导体） | 评分 -2.17 | 扣费后 EV -1.53% | 胜率 59.3%；ORCL（云软件） | 评分 -2.98 | 扣费后 EV -0.76% | 胜率 52.8%；QCOM（半导体） | 评分 -3.14 | 扣费后 EV -1.82% | 胜率 48.9%。 - Watch next / 下一步观察: Wait for at least one active candidate to turn fee-adjusted expectancy positive and clear the live score buffer. / 等待至少一只活跃候选的扣费后预期收益转正，并越过实盘评分缓冲区。
- Starting pocket capital / 起始口袋资金:
5000 HKD - Default market / 默认市场:
USequities first, with HK monitoring when relevant / 以US市场为主，必要时监控港股 - Public operation day 1 / 公开运行首日:
2026-03-10 - Guardrails / 约束: whitelist-only, bounded deployment, no leverage, no short / 白名单、有限资金、不加杠杆、不做空
- Disclosure boundary / 披露边界: publish strategy, holdings status, decision status, and daily activity only / 只披露策略、持仓状态、决策状态和每日交易活动
- current holdings with quantity / 当前持仓与数量
- latest trade timing and execution rationale / 最新交易时机与执行理由
- latest no-trade reason and next watch item / 最新观望理由与下一步观察点
- public operating rules / 对外可披露的操作规则